SpaceX Stock Could Plummet 30% by 2028: Three Key Risk Factors Analyzed

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) made headlines with its record-breaking IPO last month, but its stock has since retreated to $135, erasing early gains. With a $1.8 trillion valuation, the company faces potential downside risks driven by three critical factors.

AI Tail Risk: $26.5T Market, $6.4B Operating Loss

SpaceX's AI division, accounting for $26.5 trillion of its total addressable market, remains unprofitable. In 2025, it generated $3.2 billion in revenue but posted a $6.4 billion operating loss. Continued heavy investments in AI may delay profitability, risking market backlash.

IPO Enthusiasm Fading: Back to Fundamentals

Highly anticipated IPOs often see inflated valuations due to FOMO, but enthusiasm typically wanes as investors focus on fundamentals. SpaceX's stock has already dropped 40% from its $225 peak, signaling a shift toward performance-based pricing.

Rising Competition in Aerospace: Japan and China's Reusable Rocket Advances

While SpaceX pioneered reusable rocket technology, recent breakthroughs by Japan and China suggest its competitive edge is narrowing. These developments could pressure its market leadership and valuation.

Markets may further recalibrate SpaceX's premium valuation as institutional investors prioritize tangible returns over speculative growth. The interplay of AI investments and aerospace competition underscores near-term volatility risks.