Turkey’s Economy on 18 August 2026 – Surprises in NFP, Core CPI and ISM

Turkey’s employment, inflation and manufacturing indicators unveiled a surprising synchronization on 18 August 2026.

Shock Rise in NFP: 200,000 New Jobs

■Unemployment Rate: 8.4 % (down, +0.2 pp)

■New Hires: 200,000 (nearly the total of the first three months of the year)

■Sectoral Distribution: Services +35 %, manufacturing +12 %, construction +8 %

Core CPI Surprise Drop: 0.3 % Monthly

■Inflation: 0.3 % (down from 0.5 %, a 0.2‑pp decline)

■Food & Beverage: -0.5 % (largest drop)

■Energy Prices: +1.1 % (inflationary pressure easing, yet still rising)

ISM Manufacturing Index Signals Growth

■Index Value: 55.2 (year’s highest level)

■Purchasing Data: +3.4 % (up from previous +1.8 %)

■Stock Levels: +0.7 % (aligned with production increase)

Short‑Term Policy Impacts

■TCMB Rate Decision: 1.5 % unchanged, in line with market expectations

■Halkbank Credit Expansion: +10 %, especially for SMEs

■External Trade Balance: +5 % growth, driven by export expansion

Fatih Kılıç: Today’s data should be read as a signal of reshaping macro‑economic balances. The rapid rise in NFP indicates a quick employment rebound, while the dip in Core CPI signals easing inflationary pressure. The uptick in ISM reflects growing demand and expanding production capacity. Policymakers should keep rates steady while expanding credit to support consumption and production, laying the foundation for sustainable growth.