US Tariff Shock: Olive Oil Exporters Brace for Market Loss

US 12.5% Tariff Targets Turkish Olive Oil

The new US tariff threatens Turkey’s largest olive‑oil export market, raising serious concerns over potential market losses as the 12.5% duty takes hold.

Rapid Shifts in Market Dynamics

■Export volume: In 2023, Turkish olive oil exports totaled $2.5 billion; a 15% decline is projected for 2024.

■Competition: Italy, Spain, and Greece’s price advantages are eroding Turkey’s market share.

■Consumer demand: Demand for organic and premium olive oil in the US rose 5.4%.

Supply‑Chain Challenges

■Input costs: Sugar‑cane and oil‑seed prices have risen 8%.

■Logistics: Customs processing is slower by 30%, extending average delivery times to 12 days.

■Financing: Credit costs have increased 1.2%, adding financial pressure on exporters.

Industry’s Strategic Responses

■Market diversification: Targeting Europe and the Middle East with a 20% growth goal.

■Cost reduction: New energy‑efficiency projects will cut production costs by 3%.

■Trade agreements: Turkey is accelerating negotiations for a free‑trade agreement with the US.

The sector’s outlook will hinge on its responsiveness to US tariff policy, while diversification and cost‑management strategies will shape its resilience.