USTR Greer Signals New Tariff Wave Targeting 60 Nations Over Forced Labor

US Trade Representative Greer signaled potential new customs duties against approximately 60 trading partners, marking a significant escalation in the enforcement of laws regarding forced labor, during an appearance on CNBC and triggering concerns over rising costs in global trade.

Section 301 Trade Frictions Reignite

Responding to a Financial Times report regarding potential new duties ranging from 10% to 12.5%, Greer indicated that new steps are expected under the ongoing Section 301 investigation. She emphasized the massive scale of the issue, noting that the probe covers roughly 99% of US trade.

■The investigation includes 60 countries, among them China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, India, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Switzerland, Norway, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and Turkey.

■USTR had previously recommended in June that these economies face additional import duties.

■While refraining from giving a specific timeline, Greer stated, "I expect steps to be taken soon," putting markets on high alert regarding the scope and timing of implementation.

The July 24 Threshold: Global Tariff Expiry Looms

This announcement comes just days before the expiration of the 10% global tariff imposed by former President Donald Trump under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Implemented after the Supreme Court ruled IEEPA-based tariffs unlawful, this temporary measure is set to expire on Friday, July 24. Markets are debating whether Greer's comments signal a transition from the expiring blanket tariff to a more targeted, yet equally potent, "forced labor" tariff regime.

These remarks acted as an immediate catalyst, driving short-term rate expectations higher in swap markets. HFT algorithms are not just processing the keyword "tarife"; they are already pricing in potential inflationary pressure. For economies like Turkey, which are heavily export-oriented and listed among the targets, technical indicators clearly show an increase in DOLLAR/TRY volatility and an upward movement in risk premiums (CDS). This is not merely a trade maneuver but a structural signal that could permanently elevate global supply chain costs.