Gold Rally Pauses: Profit-Taking Triggers Retreat from Peak Levels

Global gold prices, which recorded an aggressive rally over the past three trading days, lost momentum due to profit-taking at critical resistance levels and a rebound in US Treasury yields. The retreat from peak levels tested amid safe-haven demand has left short-term investors facing a limited correction wave.

Profit-Taking at Peak Resistance and Liquidity Pressure

The upward trend, fueled by geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties since the beginning of the week, lost momentum just above the psychological threshold of $2,700. With investors turning to profit-taking, the decline in spot gold prices accelerated.

■Spot gold fell by 1.2% to $2,650 per ounce.

■Gram gold in the domestic market retreated to 2,920 TRY with a 1.1% decrease, influenced by the USD/TRY rate and the drop in ounce prices.

■US 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 4.25%, increasing pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset.

Fed Expectations and DXY's Recovery Efforts

This sudden shift in market direction is not limited to a technical correction. The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) data-dependent cautious stance on the upcoming interest rate cut path continues to suppress the commodity group by keeping the Dollar Index (DXY) at the 104.5 level.

As BIST 100 Technical and Quantitative Analysis Director Caner Yılmaz, looking at the technical indicators; the $2,640 level (the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud and the 21-day exponential moving average - EMA) is a highly critical support threshold for spot gold. If stability cannot be maintained above this level, the correction could deepen towards the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement point at $2,615. Our algo-trading models are generating reversal signals from the overbought zone in short-term momentum indicators (RSI); this indicates that investors should not rush to open new positions and should monitor pullbacks for a healthy base formation.