Gold Plunges 1.5% Amid Hormuz Tensions and Rate Expectations: Market Dynamics Shift

Gold prices dropped over 1.5% amid escalating tensions in the Hormuz Strait and shifting expectations around central bank rate policies, triggering a risk-off sentiment in the BIST 100 index. Technical analysis reveals that the downward trajectory aligns with the Ichimoku red cloud zone, while Fibonacci correction levels highlight $1,915 as a critical support. Key observations include: - $1,915 emerges as the most tested support level in the past three months.

■Fibonacci structure suggests prices below the 61.8% retracement are heading toward the 38.2% level.

■Hormuz geopolitical risks are eroding gold's safe-haven appeal, increasing volatility in energy commodities.

■Rate expectations, fueled by Fed inflation reports, reinforce the dovish risk appetite. Algorithmic trading models indicate further downside potential if the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart breaks below $1,880 (23.6% Fibonacci level). However, declining liquidity during Asian sessions may temper momentum temporarily.

Caner Yılmaz: Markets could retrace toward the $1,915 support zone unless Hormuz risks intensify. Should geopolitical pressures escalate, the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $1,880 becomes pivotal. Our algo-trading framework highlights a potential breakdown if the 4-hour moving average sustains below this threshold, though intra-day recoveries remain probable amid thin trading volumes.