Amazon vs Meta: Wedbush's AI Hyperscaler Pick and Investment Playbook

The AI surge has thrust the tech titans back onto a competitive stage, and according to Wedbush, the victor in this race is Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

New Norms in Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure

■Amazon spent $131 billion on capex in 2025, exceeding its originally forecast $100 billion by roughly 31%.

■Meta reported $72 billion in capex, surpassing its $60‑65 billion guidance by 10‑20%.

■These outlays cover not only data‑center expansion but also AI infrastructure, GPU procurement, and custom chip development projects.

■Overall AI investment by hyperscalers grew by ~45% between 2024‑2026, amounting to roughly $250 billion.

Wedbush Analyst’s Core Assessment

■Analyst Ygal Arounian stresses that AI has become “the single most impactful swing factor” across the internet ecosystem.

■Companies are reshaping user journeys while targeting higher margins through AI‑driven products and services.

■Amazon’s cloud‑logistics integration offers a broader revenue base than Meta’s social‑media‑advertising‑centric model.

■Arounian argues that Amazon’s AI‑first data‑center scale positions it to outpace Meta in long‑term growth potential.

Actionable Takeaways for Investors

■Amazon solidifies its competitive edge in cloud services and logistics with massive AI spend, potentially delivering a 12‑15% premium in valuation.

■Meta faces short‑term volatility and regulatory headwinds, though its capital allocation to VR/AR and the metaverse remains a pivotal long‑term transformation driver.

■Diversified investors might treat Amazon as a core long‑term holding, while positioning Meta as a cautious side‑bet.

Captain Rıza Deniz – Global Supply‑Chain and Freight Markets Strategist: The surge in AI‑driven capex is inflating container demand, exerting upward pressure on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Amazon’s data‑center expansion will likely spur new port‑infrastructure projects, supporting higher freight rates. Meta’s comparatively modest physical‑infrastructure needs imply a lesser impact on maritime logistics. Consequently, AI‑centric capital outlays are emerging as a decisive factor shaping global commodity flows and inflationary dynamics.