The Era of the ‘Bad Deal’ in Hormuz: Permanent Shift in Global Energy Markets

Iran’s proposal to impose shipping tolls on the Strait of Hormuz could generate nearly $20 billion annually for the regime, yet even if these astronomical fees are rejected by the U.S. and Gulf neighbors, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East—and consequently global energy markets—has been irrevocably altered.

A New Economics in Hormuz: Geopolitics Beyond Estimates

Energy analysts suggest Iran aims to generate this massive revenue through tolls of around 5% to 7% on each oil cargo. However, as the U.S. and Gulf nations are unlikely to accept such terms, the current situation indicates the following:

■Gulf countries may be forced to export oil via land if costs rise too high, potentially rendering the strait irrelevant.

■Iranians likely understand they must keep fees low enough to remain economically viable.

■Gregory Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, notes that the strait will not return to its pre-war status quo and Iran will have a permanently recognized role in managing the waterway.

■He believes that "an unattractive deal with Iran is the best of limited bad options."

AI Winds and Market Adjustments

While tech stocks showed mixed performance, AI cloud provider CoreWeave stole the spotlight:

■The company more than doubled its revenue in the second quarter, delivering blockbuster results.

■Since the IPO (March 2025), the firm's co-founders have sold approximately $2.9 billion of stock through 10b5-1 trading plans.

■Investors ignored these insider sales, pushing the stock up 2.42% at the close and another 17.4% in premarket trading.

■While U.S. tech stocks fell yesterday, markets in Asia and Europe woke up with positive momentum this morning.

Inflation Data and Europe’s Surprise

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, due today, is the focal point for markets:

■Expectations are for a "soft" number around 2.5%, which would likely keep the Fed on hold in September.

■UBS analyst Paul Donovan highlights that the data will be less precise than in the past, relying on educated guesswork to fill gaps.

■Goldman Sachs analyst Sharon Bell points out that European companies are outperforming profit expectations, with first-half EPS growth tracking at +14% year-on-year, the strongest pace in three years.

While markets are currently maintaining a risk-on stance—ignoring insider sales in AI stocks like CoreWeave—Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz introduces a structural risk premium to energy supply security. The potential upward pressure on energy prices will keep inflationary concerns alive, sustaining uncertainty around the Fed's rate path and capital flows.