Anthropic Overtakes SpaceX for 2026's Biggest IPO

Anthropic has surged ahead of SpaceX on Polymarket, now holding 58% odds of being the largest IPO of 2026.

AI Showdown: Anthropic’s Bid to Outpace the Space Giant

In the Polymarket proposition "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?", Anthropic commands 58% odds, overtaking SpaceX, which was at 90% just two weeks ago. The shift follows fresh intel on Anthropic’s possible October IPO and growing investor confidence.

Betting Flows and Liquidity on Polymarket

■Total betting volume: $5.6 million.

■Over $835,000 wagered on Anthropic; $820,000 on SpaceX.

■Traders are pricing both firms for trillion‑dollar market caps.

Valuation Clash: Trillion‑Dollar Targets

■Anthropic projects $30 trillion in potential revenue and aims for a $2 trillion IPO valuation.

■SpaceX disclosed a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, went public at a $1.7 trillion valuation and raised $85.7 billion.

■OpenAI is slated to go public next year with a projected valuation north of $1 trillion.

Market Impact and Risk Factors

■Anthropic’s IPO price remains unset, fueling speculation; SpaceX shares slipped from $150 post‑IPO to around $139, indicating short‑term volatility.

■Elon Musk now calls Anthropic “the leader in AI,” softening competitive rhetoric and highlighting their xAI hardware partnership.

■Bitcoin holdings: SpaceX is the 8th largest public Bitcoin holder, with roughly $1.2 billion in assets.

■Key Takeaways

- Anthropic is positioned to eclipse SpaceX’s IPO record by leveraging AI market expansion.

■Investor liquidity flows reflect a strong appetite for long‑term growth narratives around both firms.

■Markets may exhibit heightened volatility as they price AI‑centric mega‑valuations.

Ege Kaan – Wall Street & U.S. Macro Strategy Lead: “The rising odds for Anthropic signal a broader capital shift toward AI. If the firm secures a $2 trillion valuation, it will be more than an IPO win—it will redefine risk‑reward dynamics for AI‑linked asset classes. Yet, the volatility seen in SpaceX’s post‑IPO price underscores the need for investors to recalibrate short‑term positions. Market participants should monitor the liquidity swings sparked by this valuation duel closely.”