Bernstein Raises 2026 Gold Forecast to $4,533, Eyes a Second‑Half Rally

Bernstein lifts its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,533 per ounce, noting that easing real rates in the second quarter could steer prices back upward.

2026 Gold Price Revision

The new report bumps the 2026 average spot price to $4,533, while the 2030 long‑term outlook remains unchanged.

Real‑Rate Pressure on Gold

■Real rates rose from 2.0% in April to 2.28% by June.

■The increase pushed spot gold from $4,650 down to $4,000.

■Higher real rates dampened gold demand.

Fed and Trump Policy Outlook

Bernstein sees the upward revision in inflation expectations strengthening the case for a near‑term Fed hike, yet expects policy rates to stay largely flat over the next 12 months.

■U.S. President Donald Trump's preference for low rates may curb aggressive monetary tightening.

■The forecast allows for at most one to two rate hikes.

Upside Potential in the Second Half

With real‑rate pressure expected to ease, Bernstein anticipates a renewed upward trajectory for gold in the latter half of the year.

Dr. Aslıhan Demir: The moderation of real rates combined with a restrained Fed stance could mark a turning point for gold. Persistent geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures are likely to boost safe‑haven demand, making a move above $4,500 per ounce a plausible scenario.