Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $125K by 2026 and $300K by 2029

Bernstein forecasts that Bitcoin, anchored in its historical four‑year cycle and halving dynamics, will climb to $125,000 by late 2026 and $300,000 by 2029.

Halving‑Centric Cycle Framework

Bernstein segments Bitcoin’s price trajectory into four phases—breakout, hype, drawdown, and accumulation—asserting that post‑halving miner costs will increasingly underpin price support.

Price Targets for 2026‑2029

■Late 2026: $125,000 (base case) – end of the current bear phase and start of a new uptrend.

■Mid‑2027: $150,000 (base) / $200,000 (bull) – boosted liquidity and growing institutional demand.

■2029 Cycle Peak: $300,000 (base) / $500,000 (bull) – supply contraction after halving and stabilization of the price‑to‑marginal‑cost multiple.

■2033 Long‑Term Outlook: $1 Million – retained across all scenarios.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Treasury and Market Dynamics

■Strategy (MSTR) holds 840,447 BTC, roughly 4 % of the total 21 million supply.

■Analysts note that a recovery of STRC preferred shares to around $100 could re‑ignite active Bitcoin purchases after the planned sale of 7,000 BTC in 2026.

■MSTR closed at $126.83, up 3.4 % on the day.

Risks and Underlying Assumptions

■Assumes the price‑to‑marginal‑cost multiple will stay within 1.4‑1.2, mirroring previous cycles.

■Institutional demand is expected to cushion drawdowns and enhance market depth.

■Potential risk: loss of capital‑market access, threatening the ability to meet roughly $1.76 B in annual obligations without liquidating BTC.

Cem Talu’s Take: Bernstein’s cost‑based framework offers a disciplined lens on Bitcoin’s upside, yet regulatory turbulence and macro shocks could push outcomes beyond the modeled multiples. Large holders like Strategy wield significant liquidity influence; their treasury management could flatten price swings, urging investors toward diversification. The 2026 target aligns with the current recovery, but the bull case for 2029 hinges on heightened risk appetite and the expected post‑halving supply squeeze. Consequently, risk managers and institutions should craft hedge strategies to guard against deviations from the historical price‑to‑cost multiple.