Bernstein Forecasts New USDC Growth Cycle and Sets $140 Target for Circle

USDC's weekly supply jump of $2 billion is being framed by Bernstein as the onset of a "digital dollar reflation" and a fresh growth wave.

USDC's Sudden Supply Shock and Market Mechanics

■USDC supply rose by $2 billion over the last 7 days, snapping a six‑month stagnation period.

■Its share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume climbed from %40 in 2025 to over %60 in early 2026, overtaking USDt.

■Volume growth is underpinned by revived crypto market momentum, clearer U.S. regulatory guidance, and tokenized capital‑market activity.

Circle's Equity Performance and Valuation

■Circle shares have surged %40 in the past 30 days.

■The IPO priced at $31, raising roughly $1.1 billion; the stock still hovers near the $31 level.

■Latest quarter reported $701 million revenue and $48 million net income, both up YoY.

Bernstein's 12‑Month Growth Outlook

■Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating on Circle with a $140 price target (about %60 upside from current levels).

■Analysts highlight early signs of USDC usage by AI agents in payment flows.

■Regulatory clarity, crypto market resurgence, and stablecoin adoption in payments are listed as primary growth catalysts.

Potential Risks and Token Unlock Schedule

■Tether (USDt) remains the market‑cap leader; while USDC leads on transaction volume, value‑based competition persists.

■Possible tightening of U.S. regulations could curb the rapid supply expansion.

■Transparency around Circle's token unlock calendar and new token emissions will be pivotal for investor confidence.

Berk Arıcan – The swift USDC supply expansion adds liquidity pressure and signals a new inflationary phase in Circle's tokenomics. Although a %60 transaction‑volume share hints at overtaking Tether, sustainable growth hinges on regulatory green lights and real‑world payment integration. Absent these, the supply shock could trigger short‑term price volatility, and the $140 target may need a risk‑adjusted revision.