Tüpraş and Aygaz’s Earnings Surge Triggers Target Price Revisions

Tüpraş and Aygaz’s 2023 Q3 results continue to capture investor attention.

Energy Giant Tüpraş Delivers a Balance Sheet Surprise

■Net profit rose 28% to TRY 12.4 billion.

■Operating profit increased 31% to TRY 9.6 billion.

■EBITDA margin reached 15.2%, a 4.5% YoY improvement.

■Target price lifted to TRY 145, up from an analyst consensus of TRY 138.

Aygaz’s Liquidity Boom

■Revenue grew 19% to TRY 6.3 billion.

■Net profit climbed 22% to TRY 1.9 billion.

■Debt/Equity ratio fell to 0.45, strengthening the balance sheet.

■Target price revised to TRY 78, up from the previous TRY 71.

Target Price Revisions and Market Sentiment

■Analysts upgraded Tüpraş by 7% and Aygaz by 11% on price forecasts.

■On BIST, Tüpraş shares gained 5.2%, while Aygaz rose 6.8%.

■Investor flow is buoyed by the firms’ dominant positions in energy and LPG markets.

Strategic Risks and Forward Outlook

■Global oil price volatility could compress Tüpraş margins.

■Natural gas supply security and FX volatility remain key risk factors for Aygaz.

■The Central Bank’s 8.5% policy rate influences credit costs, shaping sector investment dynamics.

■Energy transition and green investments are emerging as critical pillars of long‑term growth strategy.

The market is positively pricing the robust earnings and revised targets of both companies. Nevertheless, external shocks and macro‑economic uncertainty—particularly energy price swings and currency movements—remain the primary drivers of share performance. Tightening SME credit conditions and the pace of commercial loan growth could tighten overall liquidity, raising financing costs for the sector and influencing longer‑term capital allocation decisions. Kerem Tufan, Commercial Credit and Central Bank Policy Director