CryptoQuant's BTC Profit Metrics Signal End of Bear Market

CryptoQuant’s latest data signals the closure of Bitcoin’s 2026 bear market.

A Turning Point in Market Indicators

On‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced that the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator has posted its first positive reading since October 2025. The metric measures the P&L Index’s deviation from its 365‑day moving average, reflecting investors’ realized and unrealized profit‑loss positions.

■Bull/Bear reading rose to 0.042, placing it in the “bull” zone.

■The cycle low hit -1.244 on Feb 5 when BTC/USD fell to $60,000, indicating “extreme bear” conditions.

■Indicator components: MVRV, NUPL, SOPR.

Short‑Term Support and Resistance Dynamics

Technical analysis shows the RSI and other momentum tools echoing a similar recovery. Yet, a series of liquidity hurdles just above spot price remain a near‑term risk.

■Analyst Rekt Capital predicts the August monthly close will be pivotal for a breakout.

■Resistance line: down‑trend established since October 2022.

■Potential support: large buy orders around the $70,000 level.

Investor Sentiment and Risk Factors

Market participants are split. Some warn that insufficient demand could pull BTC back down, while others argue that liquidity inflows sustain a durable uptrend.

■Cointelegraph: Demand‑shortfall risk.

■CryptoQuant: Profit‑loss metrics signal a long‑term bull phase.

■Institutional flow: Rising open interest in BTC futures.

Expert Note (Emre Can): Bitcoin’s on‑chain profit‑loss metrics have historically validated major trend reversals. The Bull/Bear indicator’s move into positive territory is reinforced by replenishing liquidity pools and the scaling impact of layer‑2 solutions (e.g., Optimism, Arbitrum) boosting transaction volume. Nonetheless, short‑term volatility remains elevated; risk‑management protocols—particularly setting stop‑losses near $65,000—are advisable.