Bitcoin's 6% Weekly Surge: Can Bull Momentum Sustain?

Bitcoin buyers have returned to spot, futures and ETF markets, delivering a weekly 6% gain, yet geopolitical headwinds threaten to unravel the progress.

Spot & Futures Volume: Buying Power

The cumulative volume delta for spot and futures confirmed a $925 million net‑buy day, fully absorbing the post‑CPI pullback.

■$925 million net buying on July 15

■$107.7 million net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs (July 15)

■Prior day $181 million ETF inflow

Liquidity & Funding Dynamics

Funding rates hovered between 0.10%–0.22% for most of the week before cooling to 0.048%; open interest fell 3.4%.

■Funding rate: 0.048% (week‑end)

■Open‑interest decline: 3.4% (from Tuesday peak)

■Long deleveraging modest, price down only 1.5%

Market Sentiment: Fear Index & Risk Factors

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 26, still in “Fear” territory, while external risks remain elevated.

■Fear & Greed Index: 26 (Fear)

■Renewed US‑Iran conflict

■Brent crude above $85

■Fed rate‑hike probability by Sep 2026: 44%

Technical Landscape & Liquidation Zones

Bitcoin trades within a $65,000‑$66,000 range; a cluster of long liquidations sits roughly 1.5% below the current price.

■Local resistance: $65,000‑$66,000

■Long liquidation band: 1.5% below (~$63,200)

While the two‑day net buying streak is noteworthy, its durability remains uncertain. Funding rates drifting toward neutral suggest a cooling of short‑term risk appetite. Geopolitical tensions and volatile energy prices keep Bitcoin’s price dynamics fragile, and the year‑to‑date negative ETF flow underscores continued institutional caution. Bullish momentum will likely hinge on stabilising liquidity levels and a de‑escalation of macro‑risk factors.