Bitcoin Stalls on Fed Rumble, Long‑Term Bullish Signals Persist

Bitcoin slid to a low of $76,877, erasing much of its double‑digit weekly gain, yet the fundamental bullish case remains intact.

Fed’s Hawkish Whisper

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote, stressing that inflation is not cooling fast enough, pushed 10‑year rate‑hike odds to 55.7 % from 35.4 %.

Liquidity Crunch and Liquidations

CoinGlass data shows $481 million of liquidations in the 24‑hour window around the speech, with $360 million stemming from long positions.

Technical Digest or Reversal?

■RSI: 69.7 (well below over‑bought level)

■ADX: 39.5 (strong trend persists)

■Close: $77,557 (down 3.39 %)

Levels to Watch

■Lower band: $73,670 – $75,157 (first zone for a further sell‑off)

■Upper shelf: $81,000 – $82,500 (bulls need to reclaim for new highs)

Market Outlook: $84,000 vs $55,000

■$84,000 scenario: 77 % probability

■$55,000 scenario: 23 % probability

■A recent 31.7 % lift in the bullish side marks the highest bullish sentiment since spring.

Fundamental Drivers: ETF Inflows and Bond Buy‑backs

■U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.8 billion over an eight‑day streak.

■Treasury announced a plan to double long‑dated bond buy‑backs starting Sept 9.

Short‑Term Risks and Outlook

■PCE price index at 3.7 %—nearly twice the Fed’s 2 % target.

■Warsh’s lack of a clear rate path keeps every inflation print a potential market mover.

Cem Talu: Bitcoin’s current wobble reflects a cautious counter‑reaction to Fed’s “strong progress” signals. Investors should balance the short‑term volatility—especially around $81,000 – $82,500—with the long‑term bullish momentum sustained by ETF inflows and a supportive bond‑market backdrop. The next test of the upper shelf will likely serve as a pivotal pivot for future direction.