Borsa Istanbul Opens Higher: NFP Anticipation Amid Fed Uncertainty

Borsa Istanbul's BIST 100 index started the day with a positive divergence despite global uncertainties, as investors' focus shifts entirely to the critical employment data to be released in the US.

Mining Sector Takes the Lead

The index rising to 13,827.14 points with incoming buying orders indicates that risk appetite in the markets has not yet completely faded, while sector indicators witnessed an interesting divergence. Sectoral performance data can be summarized as follows:

■The BIST 100 index started at 13,827.14 points, a %0.21 increase from the previous close.

■The mining index became the day's top gainer, appreciating by %0.91.

■The banking index recorded a limited rise of %0.20, while the holding index came under pressure with a %0.86 decline.

■At yesterday's close, the index finished at 13,798.82 points with a %0.70 gain.

Fed Shadows Before NFP Data

The search for direction continues in global markets, with uncertainties regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policies and the delayed agreement process in the Middle East keeping risk perception alive. However, the most critical variable determining market dynamics today is the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Analysts' views on technical levels are shaping up as follows:

■In the BIST 100 index, 14.000 and 14.100 points are monitored as the resistance zone in the short term.

■In downward movements, 13.700 and 13.600 points stand out as strong support levels.

■While the Treasury cash balance is on the domestic data agenda, an intense data flow led by NFP is on the agenda abroad.

From a data science perspective, the deviation margin (surprise index) of today's NFP data in our historical regression models is at a critical threshold. Data outside of expectations can instantly change pricing regarding the Fed's rate path, directly affecting the momentum of foreign inflows onto the BIST. In particular, employment figures, which have a high correlation with core inflation data, will be the most important variable determining the sustainability of today's selling pressure in the holding index.