BIST 2026 Paradox: TL Gains Evaporate in USD Terms

In the first seven months of 2026, stocks traded on Borsa Istanbul exhibited a sharp divergence in performance between local currency and FX terms, resulting in a mixed report card for investors. According to data compiled by Matriks Haber, while a limited outperformance was observed in the BISTTUM index on a TL basis, the overall picture shaped predominantly by value loss in USD terms when currency effects are factored in.

A Two-Faced Market in the Shadow of Exchange Rates

The performance of companies on Borsa Istanbul shows dramatic differences depending on the base currency. While a positive trend is followed in TL, investor profits are significantly eroded in USD terms:

■ In the BISTTUM index, 287 stocks gained value in TL terms, while 282 stocks declined.

■ When looking at USD-based performance, the table flipped completely; 233 stocks rose, while 334 stocks lost value.

■ Only 2 stocks showed no change in USD terms, with declining stocks gaining market dominance.

Capital Owners Shattering Valuation Records

While the general market view looks weak in USD terms, there are companies that have demonstrated unrivaled performance, rising far above indices. This surge, particularly in the maritime and energy sectors, is assessed as a reflection of speculative movements and sector-specific optimism:

■ Özata Denizcilik claimed the top spot with a massive increase of %2,115.25 in USD terms.

■ Birleşim Grup Enerji shares rose by %987.78, taking second place.

■ Hedef Holding followed with %909.45, while Odine Solutions with %610.20 and Anel Elektrik with %575.50 rounded out the top performers.

The confrontation of return expectations in TL terms with the reality of USD terms is the most critical point for investors. Especially in inflationary environments and periods of high exchange rate volatility, FX-based performance analysis is inevitable to measure the true valuation of companies. Exceptional rallies like that of Özata Denizcilik should not mask general market risks; the fact that the majority eroded in USD terms necessitates strict adherence to portfolio risk management.