Is July’s Pain Fading? Volkan Dukkancik’s Strategic Outlook for August

Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul stands at a crossroads, shifting from July’s sharp decline toward more optimistic signals for August.

Fed’s “Follower” Stance and Market Ripple Effects

Volkan Dukkancik highlighted that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted a “follow‑the‑market” approach rather than steering it in its latest meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s ambiguous posture, despite U.S. tech giants’ earnings and oil price swings, contributed to a 2‑3% dip in American equities.

BIST 100’s Pivotal Support Zones

■$282‑$283 range, tested three times in 2024 and each time defended by strong buying; a fourth test looms.

■13,300‑13,400 POINTS serve as the equivalent support in Turkish‑lira terms.

■Analysts see sellers nearing exhaustion, indicated by a slowdown in low‑volume sell pressure.

Stock Picks: Technical Framework and Targets

■Garanti BBVA (GARAN) – 30.4 billion TL profit; 123 TL stop level; a break above 128 TL could accelerate the rally.

■Tüpraş (TUPRS) – 278 TL stop; 320 TL target, underpinned by a solid balance‑sheet outlook.

■Hitit Computer (HTTBT) – Resistance at 34‑35 TL; 38 TL breach signals a buying opportunity.

■Energy Sector – Companies like Euro Power, Gesan, Astor may present 8‑10% pull‑back entry points.

■Gentaş (GENTS) – 5 TL as a major support; stop‑loss recommended below this level.

Risk Factors and Investor Sentiment

■Post‑MSI warnings, fund outflows have ignited a “sell‑funds‑→‑lower‑returns‑→‑more‑outflows” cycle.

■Global inflation pressures and Fed policy uncertainty could heighten volatility.

■Turkey’s effort to shed its border‑country label hinges on structural reforms and liquidity support.

Dr. Aslıhan Demir – The Fed’s passive stance fuels short‑term market swings, while BIST 100 remains in an oversold zone, offering a tentative recovery cue. August could unlock a broader upside if $282 and 13,300 POINTS are breached, reducing risk premiums; otherwise, global liquidity tightening and domestic policy ambiguity may re‑impose pressure on the Turkish market.