Commerzbank’s TCMB Critique: Inflation Forecast Lag Shakes Markets

Commerzbank economist Tatha Ghose said the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s inflation forecasts consistently lag behind, distorting market expectations.

The Lagging Forecast Cycle

■Each year begins with an optimistic outlook, only to see the year‑end estimate revised from 26% to 28%.

■The same pattern repeated in 2024 and 2025.

Market Perception Impact

■Updating forecasts only during Inflation Report periods turns the documents into seasonal presentations rather than dynamic tools.

■Market participants are beginning to view the reports as static disclosures instead of forward‑looking guides.

Burak Yalın: The TCMB’s infrequent forecast updates erode market confidence and hinder effective communication of monetary policy; a more frequent, transparent update cadence would anchor inflation expectations and stabilize lending conditions.