Historic Surge: Commercial FX Loans Hit Record $209.3 Billion

Alarms are ringing across Turkey's financial landscape; data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) reveals that foreign currency commercial loans have reached an all-time high of $209.3 billion as of July 31. The credit volume has surged by approximately $84 billion since the beginning of 2024, laying bare the radical shift in corporate financing strategies and the intensifying dependency on foreign currency.

Corporate Currency Gap Reaches Frightening Levels

Chart data points to a strong and inevitable upward trend in FX loans, particularly since the start of 2024. Companies are increasingly resorting to FX borrowing to escape the high costs of TL funding, fundamentally altering the risk structure of the sector.

■The credit volume, which stood at $125.5 billion at the beginning of 2024, recorded an increase of nearly $84 billion over a two-year period.

■This surge clearly demonstrates that companies prefer FX credits over high-cost TL resources to meet their financing needs.

■The accelerating rise over the last two years heightens concerns regarding the deepening structural issues in the economy.

The 2018 Crisis Peak Left Behind

The previous significant peak in FX commercial loans was the $187.4 billion level recorded in 2018. However, with the rapid rise in 2025 and 2026, this risky threshold has now been surpassed. Given the economy's openness and exchange rate sensitivity, these record levels raise serious questions regarding sustainability.

■The 2018 peak of $187.4 billion has been left behind, with the new record set at $209.3 billion.

■The acceleration in 2025 and 2026 confirms that the increase in credit volume has gained significant momentum.

While banks force companies to flee high-interest TL loans for FX, this record borrowing is effectively a ticking time bomb. The currency risk is loaded entirely onto the companies and, by extension, the economy. While this boom in FX loans may beautify the banks' balance sheets, in the event of a potential currency shock, the bill will be paid through inflation, ultimately coming out of the citizen's pocket.