Dollar/TRY and Euro/TRY Edge Up at Week’s Start: Fed and Middle East Tensions Shape Markets

Dollar/TRY opened the week’s first trading day with a 0.1% rise to 47.7210, while euro/TRY and pound/TRY posted similar upticks.

Currency Market Opening: A Subtle Upside Signal

■Dollar/TRY: +0.1% to 47.7210

■Euro/TRY: +0.1% to 55.1860

■Pound/TRY: +0.1% to 64.4520

■Dollar Index: +0.1% to 99.7

Fed Rate Outlook and Market Risk

The U.S. Federal Reserve appears to be lowering the probability of further rate hikes. A slowdown in inflation data supports expectations of a dovish monetary stance, bolstering risk appetite.

Middle East Geopolitical Developments and Asset Prices

The absence of a lasting peace agreement in the Middle East continues to sustain regional stability risks, extending uncertainty over asset prices. President Donald Trump noted that negotiations with Iran remain in a “semi‑negotiated” phase.

Key Economic Indicators to Watch

■Domestic industrial production figures

■Sentix Investor Confidence index in the Eurozone

■U.S. inflation and employment reports

Kerem Tufan – Director of Commercial Loans & Central Bank Policies: “The modest rise in FX rates reflects the Fed’s softer policy tilt and lingering Middle East geopolitical ambiguity. The ongoing contraction in SME credit and the pace of commercial loan growth make the macro backdrop even more critical. Tightening liquidity conditions are likely to raise external borrowing costs, pressuring corporate balance sheets.”