USD/TRY Prices Geopolitical Risks Above 47.5540

USD/TRY started the day with an upward trend, trading at 47.5540, as geopolitical risks continue to cast a shadow over asset pricing despite a slight easing in tensions, while concrete steps toward permanent peace in the region remain elusive.

Uncertainty in Gulf Diplomacy and Energy Prices

Markets continue to price the lack of results from US-Iran negotiations mediated by Gulf states as a risk premium. This situation, combined with restricted tanker passages in the Strait of Hormuz—critical for global energy supply—is creating upward pressure on oil prices.

■ Investors remain focused on the possibility of new conflicts due to ambiguity in signals from the Tehran administration.

■ Limited passages in the Strait of Hormuz are driving up energy costs and, consequently, inflationary pressures.

Central Banks and Data-Driven Trading

US Federal Reserve (Fed) policies remain at the top of the agenda in global markets. While markets have largely priced in another rate hike by the Fed before the end of the year, the non-farm payrolls data to be announced on Friday will be the key determinant of these expectations.

■ The Dollar Index stands at 100, up by %0.1.

■ EUR/TRY trades at 54,7560, up by %0.1, while GBP/TRY maintains a flat trajectory at the 63,8850 level.

■ Domestically, the real effective exchange rate will be monitored today, while globally, focus shifts to the US trade balance and JOLTS data.

In terms of market depth, smart money movements indicate strengthening speculative buying at current levels. However, geopolitical news flows can rapidly alter trading volumes for high-frequency algorithms. Investors are focused on protecting their positions against volatility ahead of Friday's data release.