Turkey's 3-Year Economic Trajectory: OVP and 2027 Budget Blueprint

The Turkish government is intensifying focus on the 2024‑2027 Medium-Term Plan (OVP) and the 2027 budget, aiming to reshape the country's macroeconomic equilibrium.

Strategic Framework of the OVP

■2024-2027 goals include 4.5% growth and 3.1% inflation control.

■A 15% budget increase is planned for high‑tech and green‑energy investments.

■Target to reduce the external trade deficit by 2.3%.

■Public debt to be reduced by 40%.

Key Points of the 2027 Budget Planning

■Customs and VAT revenue is projected to rise by 5%.

■Health and education spending will account for 12% of the total budget.

■TL 200 billion will be invested in credit and payment infrastructure.

■TL 50 billion earmarked for data analytics and digitisation.

Expected Macro‑Economic Outcomes

■CPI and ISM indices will align with the 1.8% inflation target in 2025.

■NFP (Non‑agricultural employment) growth forecasted at 3.2%.

■Exchange rates expected to stay around TL 18.5.

■Financial markets will be supported by a TL 1.2 trillion sovereign bond issuance.

Market Reactions and Investor Outlook

■Foreign investors responded positively to the 15% growth target in the OVP.

■The financial sector anticipates TL 150 billion in new credit packages.

■The FX market saw a 1.5% fluctuation in the USD/TL pair following the announcement.

Fatih Kılıç: The macro targets set by the OVP for 2024‑2027—particularly the focus on low inflation and employment growth—will provide a solid foundation for Turkey's sustainable expansion. However, the goals to curb the trade deficit and reduce public debt may trigger short‑term volatility in financial markets.