Global Risk Map Redrawn: Ex-MI6 Chief Urges CEOs to Prioritize Resilience Amid Systemic Threats

Sir Richard Moore, the former head of the U.K.'s secret intelligence service (MI6), has issued a critical advisory to CEOs navigating today's volatile geopolitical landscape, arguing that the greatest peril lies not in unforeseen black swan events but in the cumulative impact of known threats. Now advising leaders through Teneo and Sixth Street, Moore emphasizes that companies must prioritize resilience over efficiency to survive the layered systemic risks of the modern era.

When Resilience Devours Efficiency and Systemic Risk Layers

Moore's strategic warnings aim to fundamentally shift corporate risk perception. Noting that the adage "culture eats strategy for breakfast" has been replaced by "resilience eats strategy for breakfast," he alerts management to the following realities:

■The primary risk is not an unexpected black swan, but the systemic risk resulting from the layering of known issues: COVID-19, the Ukraine war, Iran tensions, China stress, and tariffs.

■Companies going global must "think local"; blocs no longer behave as monolithic entities due to shifting alliances.

■Within groupings like the EU or ASEAN, countries hold diverging views on China; for instance, the Philippines is in a direct confrontation with Beijing over bullying in the South China Sea.

The Myth of Linear Ascent in Beijing and the Derisking Formula

Moore's analysis on China is of critical importance for strategists trading Asia-Pacific markets. He warns against assuming China's rise is linear but highlights undeniable facts:

■Despite significant economic headwinds, Chinese companies are highly active and effective in certain sectors, notably open-source AI models.

■China is deeply integrated into the global economic system, meaning most global firms are either partnering or competing with them.

■In Moore's view, "decoupling" is less realistic than "derisking" as a strategic approach.

Corporate Shuffles and Macro Data Shifts

Other significant developments in the news cycle range from leadership upheavals in the tech sector to macroeconomic projections:

■Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis transitioned to a chairman role amid internal backlash over defense contracts, morale struggles, and talent departures.

■The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the 2026 fiscal deficit at $2.1 trillion, up from $1.9 trillion, following a Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump's tariff program, which is expected to reduce tariff revenue by $250 billion.

■Jefferies downgraded Apple to underperform, citing the cancellation of a rumored all-glass iPhone, rising memory prices, and limited progress in AI.

From the Emerging Markets desk, Moore's assessment that "blocs no longer behave like blocs" serves as a critical keystone for our strategic outlook. The divergence in how countries within ASEAN and Eastern Europe relate to China and the U.S. renders a single "Emerging Market" strategy obsolete. Specifically, the tension between the Philippines and China is forcing a repricing of regional risk premiums. Investors must now establish geopolitical "empathy" for individual countries; otherwise, portfolios face the risk of surprise losses during the ongoing China derisking process.