FX Shield for Real Sector: Currency Support Extended Until 2027

The government aims to dispel the atmosphere of uncertainty with a critical move that strengthens the defense mechanism against exchange rate volatility in foreign trade, which constitutes the backbone of the Turkish economy.

Historic Extension Decision from Credit Guarantee Fund

The advantages provided under the FX Credit Conversion Support Package have been extended until January 31, 2027, in a move that will increase predictability for market players and relax financial planning. This decision stands out as one of the concrete steps taken towards macroeconomic stability by protecting the balance sheet structures of companies.

Predictability Injection for the Real Sector

The extension decision creates a strategic breathing space for the balance sheet management of companies with high foreign trade volume, while also keeping financial costs under control.

■Exporter and importer companies will be able to manage exchange rate risk with a long-term perspective.

■The support provided under the guarantee of the Credit Guarantee Fund (CGF) will serve as a buffer against sudden fluctuations in company cash flows.

■This regulation supports the maintenance of production capacity by preventing companies from postponing their investment decisions.

From a technical and quantitative analysis perspective, I predict that this decision will create a positive divergence, particularly in industrial and chemical stocks carrying open foreign exchange positions within the BIST 100 index. It is likely that the index's holding power above the Fibonacci 1.618 correction level will increase in the short term. Our algo-trading models signal that this structural decline in exchange rate volatility will trigger foreign portfolio inflows, thereby increasing liquidity.