Record Gas Turbine Orders Signal Deepening Power Supply Crunch

Global orders for gas turbines have surged to all-time highs as power generation demand escalates, according to data from JP Morgan. New orders in the second quarter reached 38 GW, marking a 29% increase from the first quarter and a staggering 71% rise on an annual basis. This explosive growth in energy infrastructure highlights a severe capacity bottleneck as the sector struggles to meet the electricity demands driven by artificial intelligence and data center expansions.

Market Leaders and the Capacity Squeeze

Competition among top manufacturers is intensifying, with Siemens Energy securing the largest share of new orders in the second quarter. The German giant booked a total of 12.5 GW, followed by General Electric with 11.3 GW and Mitsubishi Power with 5.3 GW. This order surge is creating a global supply crunch, exacerbated by manufacturers' refusal to hold inventory of this heavy machinery.

■The United States accounted for half of all new turbine orders, with demand surging due to the proliferation of data centers.

■According to Wood Mackenzie, global orders stood at 110 GW by the end of 2025, while global manufacturing capacity lagged significantly between 60 and 70 GW.

■Electricity demand is projected to grow by an average of 2% annually over the next decade.

Skyrocketing Costs and Five-Year Lead Times

The widening gap between demand and supply is driving lead times and costs to unprecedented levels. BloombergNEF data reveals that lead times for new combined-cycle gas power plants jumped from 3.5 years in 2023 to 5 years in 2025, accompanied by a 49% cost increase.

■Wood Mackenzie forecasts that gas turbine prices will skyrocket by 195% by 2027, reaching $600 per kilowatt.

■Developers are racing to secure equipment for 63 GW of gas capacity additions scheduled between 2026 and 2030.

■The primary driver of cost increases is cited as "increased electrification demand, particularly around the expansion of data centers."

From the perspective of an aviation logistics and cargo analyst, this record surge in gas turbine demand signals a significant indirect impact on the air freight sector. With lead times extending to five years, energy companies will likely turn increasingly to air freight for critical spare parts and high-tech components to prevent further delays in power plant commissioning. While these massive units typically move by sea, the urgency to keep projects on schedule will drive demand for urgent charter flights within the "Project Cargo" segment, potentially putting upward pressure on air cargo rates. This intensity in energy infrastructure underscores the critical role industrial air bridges play in global supply chains.