September Inflation Shock: Year‑End Forecasts Soar to 6.30%

The arrival of September has turned Turkey’s consumer price index into a startling 6.30% spike, casting a shadow over the Central Bank’s efforts to keep 2024 year‑end inflation around 28%.

September’s Economic Spark

The surge in education and food prices every September turns the month into a “breakpoint” for inflation; in 2025, education costs jumped 17.90%, while food rose 4.62%, contributing half a percentage point to overall inflation.

Statistical Clash

■2021: 1.25%

■2022: 3.08%

■2023: 4.75%

■2024: 2.97%

■2025: 3.23%

■10‑year average: above 3.0%

Education and Food: The Two Pillars of Inflation

September adds a 0.18% “September” to the CPI through school‑return hikes and rising food costs, showing that price basket changes are not merely seasonal but structural.

Central Bank’s Forecast vs Market Reality

While the latest Inflation Report sets a year‑end target of 28% and an interim goal of 24%, market participants anticipate about 29.4%; this gap raises questions about the transparency of the so‑called “government‑inflated” price moves.

“Government Flotation” and Selective Adjustments

TÜİK’s ability to alter weightings and prices in the basket amplifies the September effect; this poses a critical challenge to the government’s year‑end target‑keeping efforts.

Remedies: Can September Be Eliminated?

To eradicate September’s inflation spike, transparency in basket adjustments, a re‑engineering of fiscal policies to balance education and food price hikes, and the removal of a September component from the CPI are recommended.

Markets will need both macro‑ and micro‑economic reforms to dampen this seasonal surge; otherwise, the September inflation could persist throughout the year.