Morgan Stanley Forecast: Amazon Stock Could Almost Double by End‑2025

Amazon’s quest for $1 trillion in cloud revenue still seems a distant milestone, yet Morgan Stanley’s latest model projects the stock could appreciate between 90% and 110% by the end of 2025.

A New Benchmark in Cloud Competition

Amazon Web Services (AWS) currently commands roughly 33% of the cloud market, but challengers (Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud) are accelerating growth at 30%‑35% annual rates. This shift could reshape AWS’s revenue trajectory.

Morgan Stanley’s Double‑Upside Scenario

■20%‑25% annual cloud revenue growth translates to an additional $150 billion in topline.

■$70 billion net‑margin projection implies a $3.5 per‑share dividend.

■15%‑20% share‑repurchase program could shrink float to a $250 billion market cap.

■$1.2 trillion market valuation, nearly double the current $650 billion level.

Risk Vectors and the Transformation Compass

■Semiconductor supply‑chain constraints may lift data‑center expansion costs by 10%‑12%.

■Regulatory pressure (especially in the EU and US) could impose an extra 5%‑7% tax burden.

■Competitive pricing tactics may erode AWS’s 3%‑4% market share.

Ceyda Uyar: While Amazon’s cloud revenue ambition may appear optimistic in the short term, the firm’s scale economies and robust cash generation provide sufficient thrust for a near‑doubling of its stock price. Investors should consider tilting 30%‑40% of their allocation toward the share, while hedging exposure through ETF‑based cloud‑focused funds to balance upside potential against downside risks.