2026 Export Projections: Turkey’s Trade Path Across Three Scenarios

Turkey’s exporters have charted their 2026 outlook in a three‑scenario framework based on a comprehensive EKONOMİ Gazette study.

Scenario Grid and Key Figures

■Base scenario: $289.3 billion export, a 5.8% increase.

■Optimistic scenario: $311.7 billion export, a 14% increase.

■Pessimistic scenario: $270.6 billion export, a 1% decline.

Sectoral Balance and Trade Dynamics

The survey highlights continued strength in traditional sectors such as automotive, textiles and agriculture, while projecting a rising share of high‑value‑added technology products. Global supply‑chain disruptions and exchange‑rate volatility remain prominent risk factors.

Strategic Takeaways and Policy Recommendations

■FX Risk Management: Expand long‑term hedging tools for exporters.

■Innovation Incentives: Boost R&D subsidies for high‑value‑added goods.

■Market Diversification: Accelerate trade missions toward Asia‑Pacific and Africa.

■Infrastructure Investment: Modernize logistics and port capacities to cut time‑related costs.

Dr. Aslıhan Demir: The 2026 scenarios signal a pivotal juncture for Turkey’s external trade strategy. The 14% upside in the optimistic case hinges not only on external demand but also on structural reforms and competitive pricing. Resilience against the pessimistic outlook will depend on macro‑economic stability and sustainable financing policies; otherwise, a dip in exports could widen the current account deficit and amplify currency pressures.