Istanbul Chamber PMI July 2024: Sectoral Shocks and Smart Money Flow

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) released the July 2024 Turkish Manufacturing PMI, which rose to 47.7, signalling a modest rebound.

PMI Breaches the Barrier: Climbing to 47.7

■The headline PMI, 47.1 in June, edged up to 47.7 in July, limiting the consecutive decline.

■Remaining below the 50 threshold confirms the manufacturing sector is still in recession.

Regional Conflict Echoes Through the Supply Chain

■The war in the Middle East directly contributes to weaker demand projected for the third quarter.

■Shipping delays have pushed supplier lead times to their highest level in the past nine months.

Production & Employment Dynamics: Gains and Losses

■Production contracted for the second consecutive month, while employment fell due to partial staff resignations.

■The number of sectors increasing headcount rose to five in July, the highest since February.

Input Cost and Inflation Cooling

■Input prices continued to rise in July, yet inflationary pressure on costs fell to its lowest pace since Nov 2025.

■Final‑goods price inflation also recorded its weakest growth since early 2026.

Sector‑Specific Performance: Winners and Losers

■The apparel and leather sector posted the strongest growth, reaching its highest rate in over four years.

■Electrical & electronics and non‑metallic mineral sectors re‑entered expansion territory.

■Food products showed the most pronounced slowdown; the primary metal industry experienced the steepest drop in new orders.

Strategic Takeaways for Market Participants

■Softening demand and easing inflation may steer smart‑money flows toward a more conservative risk profile.

■Dark‑pool volumes could see increased short‑term liquidity seeking during this low‑volatility window.

■Clearing‑house data reveals rising position concentration in sectors adding headcount (electronics, maritime transport), indicating potential low‑risk spread opportunities.

Volkan Şen – HFT & Market‑Depth Specialist: The modest PMI uptick reflects a fragile recovery in Turkey’s manufacturing landscape. Staying below the 50 mark suggests smart money will maintain a risk‑averse stance. While input‑cost moderation narrows short‑term buying windows, employment gains in apparel‑leather and electronics‑electro segments signal position accumulation in those areas. Clearing‑house flows point to momentum‑driven long‑short tactics in these sectors, with dark‑pool activity offering a fertile ground for low‑risk spread execution.