Istanbul Retail Price Index: Shock Volatility in July 2026

The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) reported a striking imbalance in retail prices for July 2026.

Price Turbulence in July: Top Gainers and Losers

Most Dramatic Price Increases

■%103.57 for hot chilies topped the list.

■%98.71 for carliston chilies followed closely.

■%41.77 for stuffed peppers ranked third.

■%37.44 rise in daily car rental rates.

■%29.25 for dry onions and %27.27 for spinach showed strong gains.

■%25.43 increase in fuel (diesel) prices.

■%20.36 for laboratory test fees and %20.18 for specialist doctor consultations.

Sharpest Price Declines

■%39.57 drop in cherries led the declines.

■%23.79 for cucumbers, %22.38 for fresh beans.

■%17.50 for watermelon, %17.20 for lemons.

■%16.69 for melons, %10.77 for curly lettuce.

■%7.48 for oranges, %6.71 for peaches.

Potential Market and Inflation Implications

■Extreme volatility in food prices could add 0.4 percentage points to consumer inflation.

■Fuel and car‑rental price hikes may push transportation costs up by 1.2%.

■Increases in health‑care fees (consultations, labs) could exert an additional 0.8% pressure on health expenditures.

■Falling fruit and vegetable prices may provide a counter‑balancing effect in the food basket but increase overall price volatility.

Dr. Aslıhan Demir: “The July 2026 price spikes, especially the over‑100% surge in chilies, cement inflationary pressure. Simultaneously, the sharp declines in cherries and cucumbers signal temporary supply‑demand mismatches. Policymakers need coordinated short‑term measures to stabilize food prices and mitigate energy cost pressures to keep inflation targets on track.”