India's Inflation Risks Deepen: US-Iran Tensions and El Niño Double Down

India's stronger-than-expected June inflation data has left policymakers facing a more uncertain outlook. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz threaten to push up oil prices, while a developing El Niño raises the risk of higher food costs. The combination of these factors poses a significant threat to India's macroeconomic stability. While the central bank delays rate hikes, it must also assess the impact of international capital flows. Markets are watching closely for how these developments will ripple through USD value and global liquidity conditions.