Iran War and Energy Prices: Secondary Inflation Risks Rising

June inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%, driven by oil price drops following a Middle East ceasefire. Monthly prices fell 0.4%, the largest decline since 2020. Energy prices dropped 5.7%, with gas prices falling nearly 10%. However, rising oil prices to $83.30/barrel and renewed hostilities in Iran signal potential inflationary pressures. Core CPI fell to 2.6%, but remains above the Fed's 2% target. Analysts warn that modest inflation readings may not persist.

Historical patterns suggest energy price spikes will impact air freight costs and global supply chains. Airlines and logistics firms must reassess operational margins to mitigate risks.