Rising Fuel Prices Spark a New Wave of Consumer Spending

Lower fuel prices have provided relief for households struggling with rising living costs, but prices are now creeping higher again. This shift is reigniting consumer spending, though the long-term implications remain uncertain. The 15% increase in fuel prices over the past year has overshadowed the 3% decline in the consumer price index (CPI), raising questions about whether consumer loyalty will strengthen or if riskier spending habits will emerge.

Consumer Spending Resurgence

■Consumer spending, which dropped 4% last year due to high fuel costs, is now rebounding with a +2% increase.

■The automotive and tourism sectors have seen +8% sales growth, benefiting from lower fuel expenses.

■Delayed major purchases due to high prices are now being executed.

Market Expectations

■Borsa İstanbul forecasts a +1.5% short-term impact from rising fuel prices.

■Garanti BBVA expects +2% earnings growth in response to a +5% increase in consumer spending.

While rising fuel prices may help consumers regain spending power, sustained support will be needed to bring inflation under control. Similar dynamics are being observed in Asia-Pacific markets, though risks from China's real estate crisis persist.