Iran’s Oil Still Flows: Dark Tanker Transfers Keep Hormuz Open Amid US Blockade

Iran’s crude exports have not been fully halted despite the United States’ stringent naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Dark Fleet’s Role: Opaque Ship‑to‑Ship Transfers

Rival states Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE are using a “dark” fleet of suspicious tankers to conduct ship‑to‑ship transfers, sustaining a flow of roughly 7 million barrels per day. Satellite imagery shows Saudi Arabia also positioning vessels for dual‑sided shuttle services, indicating it may adopt the same method.

Economic Pressure from the US Blockade

The US, reinstating the naval blockade under the Donald Trump administration, is severely restricting Iran’s oil exports. This squeezes the regime’s revenue and credit streams, further weakening an already fragile economy. Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran‑China Joint Chamber of Commerce, warned that the blockade could cause more damage than an outright war.

Outlook for Oil Flows Across the Gulf

■Saudi Arabia’s signals of expanding export capacity could mitigate regional supply shocks.

■Iran’s development of new, more evasive missiles threatens maritime security and the operational resilience of US naval assets.

■The US Navy’s dwindling interceptor stockpile may act as a deterrent against a renewed escalation.

Potential Market Implications

■Global oil prices may continue their current low‑volatility trend, but a sudden surge in exports from Iran and Saudi Arabia could push prices higher.

■The opacity of ship‑to‑ship transfers may raise risk premiums for market participants.

■The sustainability of the US blockade adds uncertainty to energy derivatives and regional equities.

Captain Rıza Deniz: The continued flow through the Strait of Hormuz indicates that global energy markets have so far avoided an abrupt collapse. Yet, the rise in dark‑fleet activity and the long‑term effects of the US blockade could lift the Baltic Dry Index and freight rates, amplifying price pressure across commodities and shipping sectors. The key indicators to watch are Iran’s new missile capabilities versus US naval response times, and any sudden shifts in regional oil flow volumes.