Geopolitical Tensions Deepen Global Market Sell Pressure

Geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices are deepening sell pressure across global markets.

Escalation in the Middle East and Energy Market Impact

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the launch of a third round of strikes this week to counter Iran's attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran has intensified maritime attacks on Gulf states, pushing oil prices higher and elevating risk perception to high levels.

Fed Policy Framework and Inflation Outlook

The Federal Reserve has cemented expectations for an interest‑rate hike in September, while its Monetary Policy Report to Congress noted that “despite the uncertainty generated by conflicts in the Middle East, economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace.” The report highlighted customs‑duty hikes, energy cost spikes, and AI‑driven demand as primary drivers of inflation.

Recent Moves in Global Equities and Bond Markets

■U.S.: Dow Jones up 0.29%, S&P 500 up 0.42%, Nasdaq up 0.29%; the 10‑year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.59%.

■Europe: All major markets rose except Germany; easyJet shares surged 14.3% after a £5.7 bn takeover bid.

■Asia: Korea’s Kospi fell 8%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 2.1%.

Turkey’s Currency and Equity Landscape

The Borsa Istanbul BIST 100 index closed 1.53% higher at 14,321.19 points. The USD/TRY pair rose 0.1% to 46.9720, with early trading seeing it at 47.00. Analysts flag 14,400‑14,500 as resistance and 14,200‑14,100 as support levels.

Key Numerical Indicators

■Fed 10‑year Treasury Yield: 4.59%

■Brent Crude: $79.1 per barrel (+4.1%)

■Dollar Index: 101.1

■Gold: $4,055 per ounce (‑1.3%)

■BIST 100: 14,321.19 points

■USD/TRY: 46.9720

■Current Account Deficit (May): $1.1275 billion (forecast)

Market participants should brace for volatility steered by energy price swings and interest‑rate expectations amid ongoing geopolitical risk. For Turkey, the exchange rate and earnings season performance will be pivotal in shaping short‑term liquidity risk. The anticipated rate hike is likely to curb risk appetite across both bond and equity markets, nudging investors toward safe‑haven assets.