Fed’s Ambiguous Rate Decision Fuels Global Market Sell‑off

The Fed’s ambiguous rate decision ignited sell pressure across global markets, draining risk appetite.

Core Fed Decision and Market Turbulence

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the policy rate at 3.50‑3.75%, approving the move with 9 votes. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan voted for a 25‑basis‑point hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the commitment to the inflation target but offered no concrete roadmap.

■Probability of a September rate hike fell from 80% to 65%.

■U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 4.69%, later reaching 4.71%.

■30‑year Treasury yield hit 5.2359%, the highest since 2007.

Middle East Tensions and Energy Markets

Sanctions on eight vessels and eight companies linked to Iran’s Strait of Hormuz revenues, coupled with CENTCOM’s new strike wave, pushed Brent crude up 7.3% to $88 per barrel before easing 0.8% to $87.3.

■Brent price: +7.3% rise, then ‑0.8% drop.

■U.S. sanctions targeted 8 ships and 8 firms.

Chip Sector Decline and Tech Stock Slide

Concerns over AI spending sustainability intensified sell pressure on semiconductor stocks. Leading chip makers posted:

■Nvidia down 3.6%.

■Micron Technology down 9.9%, AMD down 5.5%, Applied Materials down 8.4%.

Implications for Turkey and BIST 100

The BIST 100 index fell 1.36% to 13,501.55 points; the futures contract slipped 0.4%. The USD/TRY rate edged up from 47.3878 to 47.4150.

■Support levels: 13,400 and 13,300 points.

■Resistance levels: 13,600 and 13,700 points.

■Domestic unemployment and consumer confidence data will be closely watched today.

Expert Commentary (Hakan Çelik): The Fed’s cautious stance and heightened geopolitical risks are tightening global liquidity and curbing flows into risky assets. For Turkey, a rising dollar and bond yields could spur capital outflows; a breach of BIST 100’s technical thresholds is likely to amplify short‑term volatility. Policymakers should adopt a more transparent communication strategy to mitigate market uncertainty.