Pop Mart's Decline: Asia-Pacific Sales Slip While China Surges

Pop Mart shares slumped more than 4% in Hong Kong, stoking investor anxiety.

Regional Sales Performance: Divergent Trends

■Asia‑Pacific (ex‑China) sales fell 9.7%.

■Americas saw a sharper decline of 16.5%.

■China remained the bright spot, with revenue jumping 47.3%.

■First‑half revenue reached ¥17.17 billion ($2.55 billion), a 23.8% YoY increase.

Citi’s Revision: Target Price and 2026 Outlook

■Citi now expects 2026 group revenue to contract 8%, deeming the original 20% growth target unrealistic.

■The price target was cut to HK$198.

■Management cited an 11% YoY sales dip overseas and heightened competitive pressure as key challenges.

Market Reaction and Liquidity Flow

■The stock slipped to HK$147.70 ($18.84), below its three‑day average.

■Elevated trading volume indicates short‑term sellers are exiting positions.

■A regional risk‑off flow is evident, driven by uncertainty outside of China.

Pop Mart’s regional sales weakness underscores the fragility of demand in non‑Chinese markets and highlights lingering supply‑chain constraints. Citi’s more cautious revenue forecast will likely push investors toward a risk‑off stance in the on/off cycle. While the China market continues to fuel growth, the company may need to re‑engineer inventory and logistics to stem margin erosion. In the near term, the share price faces downward pressure, but China’s robust performance remains the critical lifeline for the business.