Morgan Stanley's $8 Trillion Forecast: The Bear Case for Nebius Collapses

Recent volatility among artificial intelligence stocks has exposed the market's exaggerated fears regarding oversupply. A new analysis from Morgan Stanley proves that the 35% plunge in neocloud providers like CoreWeave, IREN, and Nebius Group was unfounded, revealing that the real issue is not excess capacity, but a looming infrastructure deficit.

The Largest Infrastructure Buildout in Tech History

The investment bank's bottom-up model suggests the tech industry is about to undertake a construction buildout of unprecedented scale over the next three years. Total compute capacity across the five major hyperscalers is projected to nearly quadruple between 2025 and 2028.

■Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): Capacity to rise from 13.8 GW to 35.8 GW, a 159% increase.

■Google: Projected to jump from 5.0 GW to 31.6 GW, marking a 532% surge.

■Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): Increasing from 7.5 GW to 20.3 GW (171% growth).

■Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META): Climbing from 3.5 GW to 21.2 GW, a 506% rise.

■SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX): Explosive growth from 0.7 GW to 7.8 GW, a 1,014% increase.

■Sector Total: Growing from 30.5 GW to 116.6 GW, representing a 282% aggregate increase.

Every additional 80 gigawatts of this capacity must be designed, financed, and constructed from scratch. Morgan Stanley estimates this will translate into an estimated $4 trillion to $8 trillion in capital spending between now and 2028.

Nebius's Financial Metamorphosis

Despite market skepticism, Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) has delivered a robust financial performance. The company is attracting attention with its new "asset-light" partnership model, which removes the burden of self-financing.

■Nebius reported a staggering 684% year-over-year revenue growth.

■The company targets annualized revenue between $7 billion and $9 billion by year-end.

■Long-term goals for 2030 are set at $51 billion.

■Under the new model, third-party owners fund data centers while Nebius supplies its platform and earns recurring fees.

From a global capital flows perspective, this report signals a permanent shift in the allocation of risk-on funds towards AI infrastructure. The market, which had priced these stocks for an oversupply scenario, is now repricing them as undervalued assets in a trillion-dollar market facing capacity shortages. The $8 trillion spending forecast indicates that liquidity will concentrate heavily not just on chip manufacturers, but also on flexible infrastructure solutions like Nebius.