Middle East Tensions Push Oil to New Highs, China's AI Export Surge Fuels Market Optimism

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the United States' third consecutive night of strikes against Iran have propelled Brent crude above $84 per barrel, while China's artificial intelligence (AI)‑driven export boom is reshaping global trade flows.

Geopolitical Shockwaves Ripple Through Energy Markets

■2.4% rise lifts Brent to $85/barrel.

■Two tankers were fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz, spiking freight risk premiums.

■European natural gas prices have surged to three‑month highs.

China's AI‑Fueled Export Surge

■AI chip and equipment exports grew 18%, adding $42 billion.

■Total exports are on track to hit $350 billion, signaling a strong second‑half outlook.

■The government announced a 0.5% tax cut and a $10 billion support package for the AI sector.

Market Outlook and Risk Drivers

■Investors are watching for de‑escalation of the Iran‑Iraq conflict, but energy costs could climb an additional 3‑5%.

■Domestic demand in China remains flat at 0.2%, with negative fixed‑asset investment.

■Key data points include the US June inflation reading (3.8% forecast) and the Bank of England governor's speech.

Gökberk Uçar – Rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East will lift freight costs and support energy prices in the short term. Meanwhile, China's AI‑driven export strength modestly improves global growth prospects, potentially boosting demand for air cargo capacity. Risk management should focus on Hormuz transit and any further military escalation.