Dollar Weakens, Spot Gold Surpasses $1,950

The weakening of the U.S. dollar has sparked a rally in spot gold over the past weeks.

Dollar Weakening Dynamics

■USD/TRY pair slipped 0.8%, settling around 26.70.

■Uncertainty surrounding the Fed meeting has dampened risk appetite, boosting safe‑haven demand.

■Global inflation data erodes the dollar's real returns, fueling a shift toward gold.

Spot Gold Price and Technical Signals

■Spot gold breached $1,950, posting a weekly gain of 2.3%.

■Fibonacci retracement levels 0.618 ($1,940) and 0.786 ($1,920) act as key support zones.

■In the Ichimoku cloud, price has broken above the Kumo's upper band, signalling bullish momentum.

■The 20‑day EMA (around $1,935) remains above the price, confirming short‑term strength.

Market Participants' Positions

■ETF inflows recorded a net +$8.5 million purchase in the last 48 hours.

■Major banks increased spot gold buying, establishing a new 10.2% allocation.

Strategic Recommendations

■Short‑term traders should target the $1,940‑$1,960 range, setting stop‑loss near $1,925.

■Mid‑term portfolios may consider Fibonacci extension 1.236 (~$2,030) as a potential upside, employing hedges to manage risk.

■Institutions facing high FX exposure might shift to EUR or JPY‑denominated gold futures.

Markets interpret the dollar's weakness as a sustainable bullish catalyst for gold. Fibonacci corrections and the Ichimoku cloud point to $1,950 as a solid support level, while the 1.236 extension near $2,030 could trigger heightened volatility if breached. Consequently, disciplined stop‑loss placement and diversified positioning are essential for risk‑adjusted returns.