Citi and Goldman Sachs' Brent Forecasts: 2026 Prices to Fluctuate Between $80‑$90

Citi raised its Brent price outlook from $75 to $80 due to the prolonged US‑Iran tension, while Goldman Sachs sees short‑term prices hovering in the $80‑$90 range.

Citi's Revision: Conflict Extension Drives Price Upside

Citi lifted its average Brent price for Q3 from $75 to $80. The upgrade stems from the drawn‑out nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran and lingering supply‑side risks.

Goldman Sachs' Upper Bound: $90 Target

Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent to trade within the $80‑$90 band in the near term, highlighting two pivotal scenarios that could push prices higher: a confirmed new nuclear agreement or an escalation of regional hostilities.

Market Dynamics and Risk Drivers

■Supply Risk: Ongoing geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, especially US‑Iran tensions, compresses oil supply.

■Demand Outlook: Global growth may be slowing, yet energy demand remains robust.

■Currency Effects: A strong dollar underpins oil prices in dollar terms.

■Inventory Levels: Strategic reserves in the US and Europe provide limited buffering against price swings.

Analyst Note (Zeynep Turan): With Turkish mortgage rates still elevated, volatility in energy prices directly impacts consumer purchasing power. A rise of Brent into the $80‑$90 band will add cost pressure for households with dollar‑denominated credit cards and energy‑dependent expenditures. Banks should reassess loan terms, especially for fixed‑rate long‑term mortgages, by raising risk premiums to better protect consumers.