Prediction‑Markets Redefine Sports Betting Landscape During the World Cup

During the World Cup, prediction‑market platforms eclipsed a quarter of the U.S. sports‑betting volume, reshaping industry dynamics.

Unbounded Digital Market Expansion

According to H2 Gambling Capital, prediction‑market activity accounted for 27% of total legal U.S. sports‑betting volume in the tournament’s first month, up sharply from 9% at the start of the year. While the comparison is imperfect due to differing measurement methods, it unmistakably illustrates how swiftly new exchanges are gaining market share.

Kalshi’s Record‑Breaking Surge

Kalshi shattered its own trading records throughout the event, doubling the peak it set a week before the tournament and reaching 10‑times the volume seen early in the year. Dune Analytics shows the platform’s trading volume grew 2‑fold, and its daily active users outpaced both DraftKings and FanDuel on the Appopia rankings.

A Warning Shot for Traditional Sportsbooks

Bernstein analyst Ian Moore described the growth as “putting feet to the fire for traditional sportsbooks to launch similar services.” Meanwhile, shares of DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel’s parent) rose ahead of the Cup but have since slipped more than 25% year‑to‑date.

Shifting Risk‑Reward Calculus for Investors

Prediction‑markets allow participants aged 18+ and operate across states where sports betting is illegal, creating a new customer segment. Yet this segment remains less lucrative than traditional bettors, prompting platforms to transition from “edge‑of‑the‑market” offerings to mainstream products.

■27%: Share of prediction‑market volume in total legal U.S. sports‑betting during the World Cup

■10×: Growth factor of Kalshi’s trading volume since the start of the year

■>25%: Decline in DraftKings and Flutter stock values year‑to‑date

■18+: Minimum age for participation in prediction‑market platforms

Dr. Yaman Ege – Semiconductor and Technology Supply‑Chain Director: The rise of prediction‑markets signals a broader transformation in financial intermediation, not just entertainment. Flexible regulation and data‑driven product design enable these platforms to move beyond niche “edge‑market” users toward a wider investor base. Sustainable growth, however, hinges on robust liquidity provision and risk‑management infrastructure; without it, the rapid ascent could turn into a fragile bubble under regulatory or liquidity pressure.