Saudi Storm: Houthi Attacks and Nuclear Deal Propel Oil Past $100

Houthi Raids Shift Saudi Tanker Routes

The targeting of Saudi tankers by Houthi forces off Bab el-Mandeb has become the catalyst behind oil prices surging beyond $100.

The Nuclear Deal’s Shockwave

The U.S. agreement to develop a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia has reignited Iran’s regional rivalry, with analysts labeling the move as "escalatory."

■Prices above $100 could climb to $120.

■U.S. gasoline prices hit $4.09 per gallon, with a potential spike to $124.

■Kazakhstan’s production cut due to Black Sea drone attacks adds to supply pressure.

Rising Tensions: A New War Looms

The Houthi strategy of maximization may trigger a regional conflict, pushing tanker routes into the Suez Canal and increasing fuel and insurance costs.

■The blockade may culminate in attacks on Saudi energy facilities.

■Trump’s conditions—joining the Abraham Accords and excluding uranium enrichment—redefine the deal.

Market Implications

Fluctuating oil prices reverberate across forex and equity markets, reshaping risk profiles for OPEC and EIA‑reported sectors.

Markets view these developments as a dual threat to energy prices and geopolitical risk, and I recommend close monitoring of VIX and potential Gamma Squeeze effects.

Outlook: A 2027‑Long Adjustment

Ferreira forecasts constrained Hormuz flows into 2027, with sporadic attacks likely to persist, adding long‑term uncertainty to corporate earnings and the broader macro landscape.