Turkish Lira Trade Volume Soars 10.4%: Rise of Local Currency Dominance

The Turkish Lira (TL) takes center stage in foreign trade data, delivering a striking performance with a volume of 916 billion 966 million lira in the first seven months of the year. The 10.4% increase compared to the same period last year signals the growing weight of the local currency in international trade and points to a declining trend in dollar dependency within the economy.

Rise of Local Currency and Macro Data

Statistics compiled from Ministry of Trade data show that TL usage has recorded a steady rise on both the export and import fronts. The volume increase in TL-based foreign trade in the first seven months is not merely a statistic but an indicator of a structural transformation in the market.

■In the January-July period, TL exports increased by 14.9% year-on-year to reach 218 billion 738 million lira.

■In the same period, TL imports reached 698 billion 228 million lira with a 9.1% increase.

■Turkey's total exports rose by 3.4% in USD terms to 161 billion 601 million dollars.

Surprise Offensive in Volume Starting from April

When looking at monthly breakdowns, it is evident that the increase in products exported in TL gained momentum starting from April. While imports contracted in May due to the Eid al-Adha holiday, the general trend remains upward, with exports surging by 31.6% in July to climb to 37 billion 32 million lira.

■In April, TL exports reached 38 billion 220 million lira with a massive 57.2% increase compared to the same month last year.

■In June, TL exports rose 26% to 29 billion 952 million lira, while imports increased 16.2% to 106 billion 981 million lira.

■In July, the foreign trade volume was recorded at 144 billion 13 million lira.

This dataset indicates that the increase in TL liquidity could limit market volatility (volatility) in the short term. This expansion in trade volume with the local currency can create a cash flow that strengthens Ichimoku cloud support levels, particularly in export and banking stocks on the BIST 100 index. Technically, the strengthening of such macroeconomic fundamentals may enable the index to react more sharply from Fibonacci correction levels.