Russia Dominates Turkey's Oil Imports as Crude Demand Surges 7% While Diesel Plunges

Turkey's strategic petroleum import landscape witnessed a notable recalibration in May, characterized by a surge in crude intake and a contraction in refined product imports. According to EPDK data, total petroleum imports rose by 2.97% year-on-year to 4.085 million tons, driven primarily by a spike in raw crude demand. This shift signals a pivot towards maximizing domestic refining capacity for export markets, even as internal demand softens.

Supply Chain Reliance and the Russia Factor

Crude oil imports, the largest component of the total import bill, increased by 7.29% to reach 2.665 million tons. This escalation underscores Turkey's continued reliance on specific geopolitical corridors to meet its energy needs. The breakdown of suppliers highlights a concentrated risk profile that market participants are monitoring closely.

■Russia remained the top supplier with 1.650 million tons of imports.

■Kazakhstan followed with 515,691 tons, and the USA with 348,879 tons.

■In a stark contrast, diesel imports plummeted by 27% to 845,903 tons, reflecting reduced reliance on finished fuel products.

Domestic Demand Shock: Diesel Collapse vs. Gasoline Resistance

The domestic market data reveals a significant divergence in consumption patterns, serving as a proxy for economic activity. The sharp downturn in diesel consumption suggests cooling in industrial and logistics sectors, while gasoline demand demonstrated resilience, likely driven by personal transport needs.

■Total petroleum product sales in the domestic market contracted by 10.49%, settling at 2.625 million tons.

■Diesel sales experienced a severe decline of 15.73%, dropping to 1.960 million tons.

■Conversely, gasoline sales bucked the trend with an 11.43% increase, reaching 521,965 tons.

Export-Led Refining Margins Offset Domestic Slump

Despite the domestic slowdown, Turkish refineries successfully pivoted towards external markets, boosting exports of high-value products. This strategic shift helped maintain refinery utilization rates and supported the trade balance for energy products, particularly in the aviation sector.

■Total exports saw a minor decline of 1.07%, recorded at 1.267 million tons.

■Aviation fuel exports surged by 33.73% to 691,981 tons.

■Gasoline product exports jumped by 63.11% to 12,255 tons, while marine fuel exports rose by 45.20% to 130,503 tons.

From a pricing terminal perspective, the market will likely interpret the 15.73% drop in diesel sales as a leading indicator of slowing industrial production. However, high-frequency trading algorithms are focusing on the inventory build-up implied by the 7.29% rise in crude imports versus the drop in product imports. The heavy reliance on 1.65 million tons of Russian crude keeps geopolitical risk premiums elevated, yet the robust performance in aviation fuel exports is providing a hedge against wider current account pressures. In the swap market, this data supports the view that energy-driven inflationary spikes will be contained by domestic refining capabilities.