Turkey's Steel Output Jumps 8.1% in H1 2024: A Deep‑Dive Analysis

Turkey's raw steel output rose 8.1% in the January‑June 2024 period, reaching 19.8 million tonnes, up from the same span a year earlier.

Surge in Steel Production and Global Context

■The 8.1% increase outpaces the regional average of 4.2%.

■While global steel output grew 2.5%, Turkey’s share rose from 1.3% to 1.4%.

■The rise contrasts with the slowdown in China and India, reflecting robust export demand.

Foreign Trade and External Demand Dynamics

■Steel exports climbed 12.7%, hitting $2.3 billion.

■The EU and Middle‑East markets account for 68% of total foreign demand.

■Currency fluctuations lifted gross margin by 0.9 percentage points.

Domestic Market and Investor Reaction

■The steel price index rose 5.3% over the same period.

■On Borsa Istanbul, EÜAŞ (Energy Production Co.) shares reacted positively, gaining 3.5% on the news.

■New capacity projects, earmarked at $1.2 billion, are aligned with the 2025 target.

Policy and Tax Reform Impact

■A 15% VAT reduction eased cost pressures for the sector.

■The government’s 2024‑2026 steel export incentive package provides an additional $500 million in financing.

■30% of steel exporters directly benefit from the new tax exemptions.

Hakan Çelik – Director of Fiscal Policies and Public Finance: The uptick in Turkey’s steel output is more than a headline figure; it is a tangible outcome of fiscal measures and export incentives. The growth stems from a confluence of rising external demand, tax reforms, and strategic policy support. For sustainable expansion, however, controlling raw‑material costs, stabilising energy prices, and committing to long‑term infrastructure investment remain essential. Without these, short‑term gains could give way to renewed sectoral vulnerabilities.