TCMB August 2026 Sectoral Inflation Outlook: Household Inflation Hits 45.58%

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) released its August 2026 “Sectoral Inflation Expectations” report, revealing a widening perception gap between market participants and households.

Striking Swings in Inflation Forecasts

■Market participants trimmed their 12‑month ahead annual inflation outlook by 0.26 points to 23.69%.

■Household expectations rose by 0.64 points, reaching 45.58%.

■The real‑sector consensus climbed by 0.30 points to 32.80%.

Household Shock: A Significant Rise

■The share of households expecting inflation to fall fell by 0.78 points to 16.85%, indicating a more cautious short‑term outlook.

■This decline underscores households’ heightened sensitivity to price pressures.

Real‑Sector Surprise Upside

■Manufacturers and service firms stressed that price pressures remain elevated and cost growth is likely to persist.

■The sector’s inflation expectation of 32.80% signals a stronger case for tighter monetary policy.

Investor and Market Reactions

■The TRY/USD pair experienced heightened volatility as inflation expectations surged, while short‑term TRY bonds saw yields rise.

■The BIST 100 index faced a modest pullback amid rising inflation risk premiums.

■Investors shifted from short‑term fixed‑income assets toward foreign exchange and gold as protective hedges.

Fatih Kılıç – Lead data scientist specializing in NFP, core CPI and ISM manufacturing surprise indexes. The divergent inflation outlook is set to compress market liquidity and lift risk premiums. Households’ high expectations point to sustained cost pressures in the real sector, adding to downward pressure on the lira and supporting the CBRT’s inclination to keep policy rates near 15%. In the near term, yields on fixed‑income instruments will keep climbing, while demand for FX and gold is likely to intensify.