July Market Strategy: Credit Rating, Inflation and Balance Sheet Expectations

The perakende data on July 13 will shape the TCMB's interest rate decision. The markets are cautious ahead of the TCMB's July interest rate decision. New conflicts in the Middle East and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz are causing fluctuations in oil prices. Gold is expected to rise due to structural costs and geopolitical risks. The Borsa Istanbul has shown a positive outlook in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations. The BIST 100 index gained 25.40% in the first 6 months, reaching 14,121. The highest level of the index was 15,204, and the lowest was 11,296.

Market Analysis

■45 stocks in the BIST 100 completed the first 6 months in the positive zone, while 55 stocks showed negative performance.

■The banking index showed a performance of 8.63%, while the industrial index rose by 8.89%.

■In terms of foreign investor interest, there was a net inflow of $1.46 billion to the stock market in the first half of the year.

Economic Indicators

■July is expected to be a period where multiple factors will influence pricing, rather than a single data set.

■The decline in the CDS to around 200 levels has had an impact on the perception of TL assets.

Expert Analysis

July is expected to be a highly intense period, with both global and domestic markets being influenced by monetary policy decisions and critical macroeconomic data. The calendar is filled with interest rate decisions from major central banks and inflation-growth data from the US and Europe, while domestically, the focus will be on the TCMB's decision following the inflation data.